Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Potosí vs Atlético Palmaflor — Primera División 2019

Real Potosí
Real Potosí
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
7/21/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 10Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Real Potosí50%
×Draw22%
Atlético Palmaflor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Potosí
1.92
Atlético Palmaflor
1.38

Real Potosí creates 39% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 66 away

creates per match

Real Potosí
1.78
Atlético Palmaflor
0.97

allows per match

Real Potosí
1.78
Atlético Palmaflor
2.05

finishing

Real Potosí+0.00on par
Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Potosí ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Real Potosí or draw
72%
Real Potosí or Atlético Palmaflor
78%
Draw or Atlético Palmaflor
50%

Winning margin

Real Potosí wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Potosí 1+ goals
85%
Real Potosí 2+ goals
57%
Real Potosí 3+ goals
30%
Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Potosí (draw refunded)
64%
Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Potosí at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 60 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Potosí attack 1.78 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Real Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Potosí scores more
50%
level
22%
Atlético Palmaflor scores more
28%

Real Potosí at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Real Potosí 1–5 Atlético Palmaflor

Atlético Palmaflor beat Real Potosí 5-1 in Primera División on July 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.