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Atlético Palmaflor vs Real Potosí — Primera División 2019

Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Potosí
Real Potosí
11/2/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor62%
×Draw22%
Real Potosí17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Palmaflor
1.93
Real Potosí
0.88

Atlético Palmaflor creates 119% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 58 away

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor
1.40
Real Potosí
0.84

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor
0.92
Real Potosí
2.45

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par
Real Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Real Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw
83%
Atlético Palmaflor or Real Potosí
78%
Draw or Real Potosí
38%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
37%
Real Potosí wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
57%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
30%
Real Potosí 1+ goals
59%
Real Potosí 2+ goals
22%
Real Potosí 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
79%
Real Potosí (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Real Potosí away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Real Potosí defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.93

Real Potosí attack 0.84 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more
62%
level
22%
Real Potosí scores more
17%

Atlético Palmaflor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Palmaflor vs Real Potosí

Real Potosí beat Atlético Palmaflor 1-0 in Primera División on November 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.