Real Podunavci 0–1 Omladinac Zablaće

Real Podunavci

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Omladinac Zablaće

5/24/2025

Srpska Liga - West · West - 28Stadion Real Podunavci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Podunavci51%

×Draw26%

Omladinac Zablaće24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PodunavciExpected goals in this matchOmladinac Zablaće

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.97

Real Podunavci

1.55

Omladinac Zablaće

0.97

Real Podunavci creates 60% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

1.49

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Real Podunavci

1.49

Omladinac Zablaće

0.95

allows per match

Real Podunavci

1.00

Omladinac Zablaće

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Omladinac Zablaće+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Podunavci ↓

Omladinac Zablaće →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Podunavci or draw

76%

Real Podunavci or Omladinac Zablaće

74%

Draw or Omladinac Zablaće

49%

Winning margin

Real Podunavci wins by 2+

26%

Omladinac Zablaće wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Podunavci 1+ goals

79%

Real Podunavci 2+ goals

46%

Real Podunavci 3+ goals

20%

Omladinac Zablaće 1+ goals

62%

Omladinac Zablaće 2+ goals

25%

Omladinac Zablaće 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Podunavci (draw refunded)

68%

Omladinac Zablaće (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Podunavci at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Omladinac Zablaće away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Podunavci attack 1.49 + Omladinac Zablaće defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Omladinac Zablaće attack 0.95 + Real Podunavci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Podunavci scores more

51%

level

26%

Omladinac Zablaće scores more

24%

Real Podunavci at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Podunavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff