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Omladinac Zablaće vs Real Podunavci — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Omladinac Zablaće
Omladinac Zablaće
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Podunavci
Real Podunavci
4/18/2026Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 22Stadion FK Omladinac Zablaće

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Omladinac Zablaće44%
×Draw29%
Real Podunavci28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac Zablaće
1.25
Real Podunavci
0.93

Omladinac Zablaće creates 34% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 74 away

creates per match

Omladinac Zablaće
1.34
Real Podunavci
0.99

allows per match

Omladinac Zablaće
0.86
Real Podunavci
1.16

finishing

Omladinac Zablaće+0.00on par
Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac Zablaće ↓

Real Podunavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Omladinac Zablaće or draw
72%
Omladinac Zablaće or Real Podunavci
71%
Draw or Real Podunavci
56%

Winning margin

Omladinac Zablaće wins by 2+
20%
Real Podunavci wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Omladinac Zablaće 1+ goals
71%
Omladinac Zablaće 2+ goals
36%
Omladinac Zablaće 3+ goals
13%
Real Podunavci 1+ goals
61%
Real Podunavci 2+ goals
24%
Real Podunavci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Omladinac Zablaće (draw refunded)
61%
Real Podunavci (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac Zablaće at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Real Podunavci away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac Zablaće attack 1.34 + Real Podunavci defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Podunavci attack 0.99 + Omladinac Zablaće defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Omladinac Zablaće scores more
44%
level
29%
Real Podunavci scores more
28%

Omladinac Zablaće at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Omladinac Zablaće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omladinac Zablaće vs Real Podunavci

Omladinac Zablaće and Real Podunavci drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac Zablaće in Zablaće.