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Real Podunavci vs Borac Cacak — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Real Podunavci
Real Podunavci
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 12Stadion Real Podunavci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Real Podunavci33%
×Draw26%
Borac Cacak41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Podunavci
1.23
Borac Cacak
1.39

Borac Cacak creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

creates per match

Real Podunavci
1.49
Borac Cacak
1.78

allows per match

Real Podunavci
1.00
Borac Cacak
0.98

finishing

Real Podunavci+0.00on par
Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Podunavci ↓

Borac Cacak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Podunavci or draw
59%
Real Podunavci or Borac Cacak
74%
Draw or Borac Cacak
67%

Winning margin

Real Podunavci wins by 2+
14%
Borac Cacak wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Real Podunavci 1+ goals
71%
Real Podunavci 2+ goals
35%
Real Podunavci 3+ goals
13%
Borac Cacak 1+ goals
75%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
40%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Podunavci (draw refunded)
45%
Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Podunavci at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Podunavci attack 1.49 + Borac Cacak defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Borac Cacak attack 1.78 + Real Podunavci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Podunavci scores more
33%
level
26%
Borac Cacak scores more
41%

Borac Cacak at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Real Podunavci 0–1 Borac Cacak

Borac Cacak beat Real Podunavci 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Real Podunavci in Podunavci.