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Borac Cacak vs Real Podunavci — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Podunavci
Real Podunavci
5/18/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 27Stadion Borca kraj Morave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Borac Cacak62%
×Draw22%
Real Podunavci16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Cacak
1.83
Real Podunavci
0.79

Borac Cacak creates 132% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 74 away

creates per match

Borac Cacak
2.49
Real Podunavci
0.99

allows per match

Borac Cacak
0.60
Real Podunavci
1.16

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par
Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

Real Podunavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw
84%
Borac Cacak or Real Podunavci
78%
Draw or Real Podunavci
38%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+
36%
Real Podunavci wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals
84%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
54%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
28%
Real Podunavci 1+ goals
55%
Real Podunavci 2+ goals
19%
Real Podunavci 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
80%
Real Podunavci (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.60 · 55 matches

Real Podunavci away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 2.49 + Real Podunavci defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Real Podunavci attack 0.99 + Borac Cacak defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Borac Cacak scores more
62%
level
22%
Real Podunavci scores more
16%

Borac Cacak at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Cacak vs Real Podunavci

Borac Cacak beat Real Podunavci 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Borca kraj Morave in Čačak.