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Real Pilar vs Puerto Nuevo — Primera C 2026

Real Pilar
Real Pilar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo
9/9/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 34Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Real Pilar50%
×Draw28%
Puerto Nuevo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pilar
1.33
Puerto Nuevo
0.77

Real Pilar creates 73% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 83 away

creates per match

Real Pilar
1.39
Puerto Nuevo
0.82

allows per match

Real Pilar
0.72
Puerto Nuevo
1.27

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par
Puerto Nuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

Puerto Nuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw
78%
Real Pilar or Puerto Nuevo
72%
Draw or Puerto Nuevo
50%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+
24%
Puerto Nuevo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals
74%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
38%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
15%
Puerto Nuevo 1+ goals
54%
Puerto Nuevo 2+ goals
18%
Puerto Nuevo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)
70%
Puerto Nuevo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 98 matches

Puerto Nuevo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.39 + Puerto Nuevo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Puerto Nuevo attack 0.82 + Real Pilar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Pilar scores more
50%
level
28%
Puerto Nuevo scores more
22%

Real Pilar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Pilar vs Puerto Nuevo

Real Pilar beat Puerto Nuevo 2-0 in Primera C on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.