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Puerto Nuevo vs Real Pilar — Primera C 2026

Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Pilar
Real Pilar
4/30/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 15Estadio Rubén Carlos Vallejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Puerto Nuevo26%
×Draw29%
Real Pilar45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Nuevo
0.86
Real Pilar
1.23

Real Pilar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 97 away

creates per match

Puerto Nuevo
0.88
Real Pilar
1.14

allows per match

Puerto Nuevo
1.33
Real Pilar
0.84

finishing

Puerto Nuevo+0.00on par
Real Pilar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Nuevo ↓

Real Pilar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Puerto Nuevo or draw
55%
Puerto Nuevo or Real Pilar
71%
Draw or Real Pilar
74%

Winning margin

Puerto Nuevo wins by 2+
9%
Real Pilar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Puerto Nuevo 1+ goals
58%
Puerto Nuevo 2+ goals
21%
Puerto Nuevo 3+ goals
6%
Real Pilar 1+ goals
71%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
35%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Puerto Nuevo (draw refunded)
37%
Real Pilar (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Nuevo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Real Pilar away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Nuevo attack 0.88 + Real Pilar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Real Pilar attack 1.14 + Puerto Nuevo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Puerto Nuevo scores more
26%
level
29%
Real Pilar scores more
45%

Real Pilar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puerto Nuevo vs Real Pilar

Real Pilar beat Puerto Nuevo 3-1 in Primera C on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rubén Carlos Vallejos in Campana, Provincia de Buenos Aires.