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Real Pilar vs Lugano — Primera C 2026

Real Pilar
Real Pilar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lugano
Lugano
3/15/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 8Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real Pilar52%
×Draw27%
Lugano20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pilar
1.42
Lugano
0.77

Real Pilar creates 84% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 48 away

creates per match

Real Pilar
1.39
Lugano
0.81

allows per match

Real Pilar
0.72
Lugano
1.46

finishing

Real Pilar+0.00on par
Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pilar ↓

Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Pilar or draw
80%
Real Pilar or Lugano
73%
Draw or Lugano
48%

Winning margin

Real Pilar wins by 2+
26%
Lugano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Pilar 1+ goals
76%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
41%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
17%
Lugano 1+ goals
54%
Lugano 2+ goals
18%
Lugano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Pilar (draw refunded)
72%
Lugano (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pilar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 98 matches

Lugano away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pilar attack 1.39 + Lugano defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lugano attack 0.81 + Real Pilar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Pilar scores more
52%
level
27%
Lugano scores more
20%

Real Pilar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Pilar vs Lugano

Real Pilar beat Lugano 3-0 in Primera C on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.