Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lugano vs Real Pilar — Primera C 2026

Lugano
Lugano
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Real Pilar
Real Pilar
8/17/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 8Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lugano28%
×Draw29%
Real Pilar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugano
0.92
Real Pilar
1.21

Real Pilar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 97 away

creates per match

Lugano
1.00
Real Pilar
1.14

allows per match

Lugano
1.28
Real Pilar
0.84

finishing

Lugano+0.00on par
Real Pilar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano ↓

Real Pilar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lugano or draw
57%
Lugano or Real Pilar
71%
Draw or Real Pilar
72%

Winning margin

Lugano wins by 2+
10%
Real Pilar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lugano 1+ goals
60%
Lugano 2+ goals
23%
Lugano 3+ goals
7%
Real Pilar 1+ goals
70%
Real Pilar 2+ goals
34%
Real Pilar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lugano (draw refunded)
40%
Real Pilar (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Real Pilar away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano attack 1.00 + Real Pilar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Real Pilar attack 1.14 + Lugano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lugano scores more
28%
level
29%
Real Pilar scores more
43%

Real Pilar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lugano vs Real Pilar

Real Pilar beat Lugano 4-0 in Primera C on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Moraños in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.