Real Pharm 0–4 Nyva Buzova: Result & Stats

Real Pharm

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Nyva Buzova

Y. Misyura 83'

B. Semenets 66'

V. Tymenko 60'

I. Somov 23'

4/8/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 11Stadion FSK Ivan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Real Pharm10%

×Draw20%

Nyva Buzova69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PharmExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.58

1.92

Real Pharm

0.58

Nyva Buzova

1.92

Nyva Buzova creates 231% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 8 away

0.78

creates per match

1.63

2.20

allows per match

0.38

creates per match

Real Pharm

0.78

Nyva Buzova

1.63

allows per match

Real Pharm

2.20

Nyva Buzova

0.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pharm ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–116%

0–215%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Pharm or draw

31%

Real Pharm or Nyva Buzova

80%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

90%

Winning margin

Real Pharm wins by 2+

2%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Real Pharm 1+ goals

44%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

12%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

2%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

85%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

57%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

13%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pharm at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pharm attack 0.78 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.58

Nyva Buzova attack 1.63 + Real Pharm defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Real Pharm scores more

10%

level

20%

Nyva Buzova scores more

69%

Nyva Buzova at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

I. Somov

46'

Y. Kerbal← V. Myachyn

46'

M. Koshkin← M. Lykhovydov

46'

D. Skepskyi← O. Kalinin

54'

M. Marchenko← S. Platunov

59'

O. Kolesnykov← A. Varenyk

60'

V. Tymenko

61'

M. Evpak← V. Tymenko

66'

B. Semenets

70'

Y. Mykolayuk← Y. Zakharevych

70'

I. Koshman← I. Somov

78'

V. Granchar← A. Lykhovydov

81'

D. Zagalevych← B. Semenets

83'

Y. Misyura

Real

Nyva

Lytvynenk

Sklyarenk

▼

Zakharevy

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Tymenko

Tkachenko

▼

Kalinin

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Parkhomenko

46'▲Y. Kerbal←▼V. Myachyn

46'▲M. Koshkin←▼M. Lykhovydov

54'▲M. Marchenko←▼S. Platunov

59'▲O. Kolesnykov←▼A. Varenyk

78'▲V. Granchar←▼A. Lykhovydov

Real Pharm substitutes

KerbalKoshkinMarchenkoKolesnykovGranchar

Manager: S. Karpenko

46'▲D. Skepskyi←▼O. Kalinin

61'▲M. Evpak←▼V. Tymenko

70'▲Y. Mykolayuk←▼Y. Zakharevych

70'▲I. Koshman←▼I. Somov

81'▲D. Zagalevych←▼B. Semenets

Nyva Buzova substitutes

SkepskyiEvpakMykolayukKoshmanZagalevych