Nyva Buzova 2–0 Real Pharm: Result & Stats

Nyva Buzova

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Pharm

I. Somov 65'

D. Skepskyi 6'

9/10/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 2Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nyva Buzova77%

×Draw15%

Real Pharm8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchReal Pharm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.68

Nyva Buzova

2.51

Real Pharm

0.68

Nyva Buzova creates 269% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 46 away

2.56

creates per match

0.80

0.56

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

2.56

Real Pharm

0.80

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

0.56

Real Pharm

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Real Pharm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

92%

Nyva Buzova or Real Pharm

85%

Draw or Real Pharm

23%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

55%

Real Pharm wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

92%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

71%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

45%

Real Pharm 1+ goals

49%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

15%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

90%

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 2.56 + Real Pharm defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.51

Real Pharm attack 0.80 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

77%

level

15%

Real Pharm scores more

8%

Nyva Buzova at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Skepskyi

64'

A. Golovatenko← D. Skepskyi

64'

Y. Zakharevych← V. Tymenko

65'

M. Koshkin← S. Barsukov

65'

M. Popov← V. Tymoshevskyi

65'

I. Somov

72'

B. Semenets← S. Zuevych

75'

M. Marchenko← Y. Ratushnyak

76'

D. Zagalevych← Y. Mykolayuk

84'

K. Zlepko← I. Duvnyak

84'

M. Igumenov← O. Faber

Nyva

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Karpenko

64'▲A. Golovatenko←▼D. Skepskyi

64'▲Y. Zakharevych←▼V. Tymenko

72'▲B. Semenets←▼S. Zuevych

76'▲D. Zagalevych←▼Y. Mykolayuk

Nyva Buzova substitutes

GolovatenkoZakharevychSemenetsZagalevych

Manager: Y. Kulish

65'▲M. Koshkin←▼S. Barsukov

65'▲M. Popov←▼V. Tymoshevskyi

75'▲M. Marchenko←▼Y. Ratushnyak

84'▲K. Zlepko←▼I. Duvnyak

84'▲M. Igumenov←▼O. Faber

Real Pharm substitutes

KoshkinPopovMarchenkoZlepkoIgumenov