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Real Pharm vs Lokomotiv Kyiv — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Real Pharm
Real Pharm
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
8/12/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 2Stadion FSK Ivan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Pharm21%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Kyiv56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pharm
1.06
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.87

Lokomotiv Kyiv creates 76% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 37 away

creates per match

Real Pharm
0.78
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.54

allows per match

Real Pharm
2.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.35

finishing

Real Pharm+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pharm ↓

Lokomotiv Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Pharm or draw
44%
Real Pharm or Lokomotiv Kyiv
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Kyiv
79%

Winning margin

Real Pharm wins by 2+
8%
Lokomotiv Kyiv wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Real Pharm 1+ goals
65%
Real Pharm 2+ goals
29%
Real Pharm 3+ goals
9%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Real Pharm (draw refunded)
27%
Lokomotiv Kyiv (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pharm at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

Lokomotiv Kyiv away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pharm attack 0.78 + Lokomotiv Kyiv defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lokomotiv Kyiv attack 1.54 + Real Pharm defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Pharm scores more
21%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Kyiv scores more
56%

Lokomotiv Kyiv at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lokomotiv Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Real Pharm 4–1 Lokomotiv Kyiv

Real Pharm beat Lokomotiv Kyiv 4-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FSK Ivan in Odessa.