Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Real Pharm — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Lokomotiv Kyiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Pharm
Real Pharm
11/11/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 17Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Lokomotiv Kyiv65%
×Draw20%
Real Pharm15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Kyiv
2.06
Real Pharm
0.88

Lokomotiv Kyiv creates 134% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.67
Real Pharm
0.80

allows per match

Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.95
Real Pharm
2.46

finishing

Lokomotiv Kyiv+0.00on par
Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Kyiv ↓

Real Pharm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Kyiv or draw
85%
Lokomotiv Kyiv or Real Pharm
80%
Draw or Real Pharm
35%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Kyiv wins by 2+
40%
Real Pharm wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Kyiv 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 2+ goals
61%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 3+ goals
34%
Real Pharm 1+ goals
59%
Real Pharm 2+ goals
22%
Real Pharm 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Kyiv (draw refunded)
81%
Real Pharm (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Kyiv at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Kyiv attack 1.67 + Real Pharm defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.06

Real Pharm attack 0.80 + Lokomotiv Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotiv Kyiv scores more
65%
level
20%
Real Pharm scores more
15%

Lokomotiv Kyiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Lokomotiv Kyiv 5–0 Real Pharm

Lokomotiv Kyiv beat Real Pharm 5-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kiev.