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Real Pharm vs Kremin' II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Real Pharm
Real Pharm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kremin' II
Kremin' II
5/21/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 17Stadion FSK Ivan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Real Pharm52%
×Draw22%
Kremin' II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pharm
1.92
Kremin' II
1.27

Real Pharm creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 21 away

creates per match

Real Pharm
0.78
Kremin' II
0.33

allows per match

Real Pharm
2.20
Kremin' II
3.05

finishing

Real Pharm+0.00on par
Kremin' II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pharm ↓

Kremin' II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Pharm or draw
75%
Real Pharm or Kremin' II
78%
Draw or Kremin' II
48%

Winning margin

Real Pharm wins by 2+
30%
Kremin' II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Pharm 1+ goals
85%
Real Pharm 2+ goals
57%
Real Pharm 3+ goals
30%
Kremin' II 1+ goals
72%
Kremin' II 2+ goals
36%
Kremin' II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Pharm (draw refunded)
67%
Kremin' II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pharm at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

Kremin' II away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pharm attack 0.78 + Kremin' II defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kremin' II attack 0.33 + Real Pharm defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Pharm scores more
52%
level
22%
Kremin' II scores more
25%

Real Pharm at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Pharm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Real Pharm 2–0 Kremin' II

Real Pharm beat Kremin' II 2-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FSK Ivan in Odessa.