Kremin' II 1–2 Real Pharm: Result & Stats

Kremin' II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Real Pharm

8/18/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 3Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kremin' II39%

×Draw25%

Real Pharm36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kremin' IIExpected goals in this matchReal Pharm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.42

Kremin' II

1.49

Real Pharm

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 46 away

0.52

creates per match

0.80

2.04

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Kremin' II

0.52

Real Pharm

0.80

allows per match

Kremin' II

2.04

Real Pharm

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kremin' II+0.00on par

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' II ↓

Real Pharm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kremin' II or draw

64%

Kremin' II or Real Pharm

75%

Draw or Real Pharm

61%

Winning margin

Kremin' II wins by 2+

19%

Real Pharm wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kremin' II 1+ goals

77%

Kremin' II 2+ goals

44%

Kremin' II 3+ goals

19%

Real Pharm 1+ goals

76%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

41%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kremin' II (draw refunded)

52%

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' II at home — creates 0.52, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' II attack 0.52 + Real Pharm defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Real Pharm attack 0.80 + Kremin' II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kremin' II scores more

39%

level

25%

Real Pharm scores more

36%

Kremin' II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kremin' II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff