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Real Pharm vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Real Pharm
Real Pharm
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
9/8/2019Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 8Stadion FSK Ivan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Real Pharm12%
×Draw18%
Alians Lypova Dolyna69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Pharm
0.80
Alians Lypova Dolyna
2.22

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 178% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 10 away

creates per match

Real Pharm
0.91
Alians Lypova Dolyna
2.60

allows per match

Real Pharm
1.84
Alians Lypova Dolyna
0.70

finishing

Real Pharm+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pharm ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Pharm or draw
31%
Real Pharm or Alians Lypova Dolyna
82%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
88%

Winning margin

Real Pharm wins by 2+
4%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Real Pharm 1+ goals
55%
Real Pharm 2+ goals
19%
Real Pharm 3+ goals
5%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
89%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
65%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Real Pharm (draw refunded)
15%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pharm at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.84 · 32 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pharm attack 0.91 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.60 + Real Pharm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Real Pharm scores more
12%
level
18%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
69%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group B: Real Pharm 0–5 Alians Lypova Dolyna

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Real Pharm 5-0 in Druha Liga - Group B on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FSK Ivan in Odessa.