Alians Lypova Dolyna 5–0 Real Pharm: Result & Stats

Alians Lypova Dolyna

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Real Pharm

11/3/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 19Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna79%

×Draw15%

Real Pharm6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alians Lypova DolynaExpected goals in this matchReal Pharm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.51

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.38

Real Pharm

0.51

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 367% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

2.50

creates per match

0.52

0.50

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.50

Real Pharm

0.52

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

0.50

Real Pharm

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Real Pharm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw

94%

Alians Lypova Dolyna or Real Pharm

85%

Draw or Real Pharm

21%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

56%

Real Pharm wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

91%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

68%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

42%

Real Pharm 1+ goals

40%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

9%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

93%

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.50 + Real Pharm defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.38

Real Pharm attack 0.52 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

79%

level

15%

Real Pharm scores more

6%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Real Pharm

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Real Pharm 5-0 in Druha Liga - Group B on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Sumy.

Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Real Pharm — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Real Pharm