Real Oviedo II vs Real Madrid II

Real Oviedo II

CANC

00:00

Real Madrid II

4/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Oviedo II39%

×Draw27%

Real Madrid II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Real Oviedo II

1.31

Real Madrid II

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 51 away

1.04

creates per match

1.47

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.04

Real Madrid II

1.47

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.00

Real Madrid II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

65%

Real Oviedo II or Real Madrid II

73%

Draw or Real Madrid II

61%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

17%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

73%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

38%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

14%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

71%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

35%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

53%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

39%

level

27%

Real Madrid II scores more

35%

Real Oviedo II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff