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Real Madrid II vs Real Oviedo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
11/23/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Madrid II58%
×Draw23%
Real Oviedo II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.75
Real Oviedo II
0.89

Real Madrid II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 26 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
Real Oviedo II
0.92

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
Real Oviedo II
1.88

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
81%
Real Madrid II or Real Oviedo II
77%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
42%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
32%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
83%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
52%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
25%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
59%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
22%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
75%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Real Oviedo II attack 0.92 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
58%
level
23%
Real Oviedo II scores more
19%

Real Madrid II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Real Oviedo II

Real Madrid II beat Real Oviedo II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.