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Real Oviedo II vs Marino de Luanco — League #875 2026

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
G. Berzal 30'
Marco Esteban 57' (OG)
10/18/2025League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 7Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Oviedo II39%
×Draw25%
Marino de Luanco36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.44
Marino de Luanco
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.67
Marino de Luanco
1.32

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.40
Marino de Luanco
1.21

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
64%
Real Oviedo II or Marino de Luanco
75%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
61%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
19%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
76%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
42%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
18%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
74%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
39%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
52%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.67 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Marino de Luanco attack 1.32 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
39%
level
25%
Marino de Luanco scores more
36%

Real Oviedo II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
G. Berzal
57'
Marco EstebanOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Real Oviedo II 1–1 Marino de Luanco

Real Oviedo II and Marino de Luanco drew 1-1 in League #875 on October 18, 2025.

Goals: G. Berzal (30'), Marco Esteban (57' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.