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Marino de Luanco vs Real Oviedo II — League #875 2026

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
S. Perez 43'
O. de la Hera 86'
4/12/2026League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 31Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marino de Luanco48%
×Draw33%
Real Oviedo II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
1.10
Real Oviedo II
0.57

Marino de Luanco creates 93% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.00
Real Oviedo II
0.73

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.42
Real Oviedo II
1.20

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
81%
Marino de Luanco or Real Oviedo II
67%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
52%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
20%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
67%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
30%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
10%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
43%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
11%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
72%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.42 · 19 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.00 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Real Oviedo II attack 0.73 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
48%
level
33%
Real Oviedo II scores more
19%

Marino de Luanco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
S. Perez
86'
O. de la Hera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino de Luanco vs Real Oviedo II

Marino de Luanco and Real Oviedo II drew 1-1 in League #875 on April 12, 2026.

Goals: S. Perez (43'), O. de la Hera (86').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.