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Real Oviedo II vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
1/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Oviedo II49%
×Draw28%
Marino de Luanco23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.36
Marino de Luanco
0.84

Real Oviedo II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
1.04
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
1.00
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
77%
Real Oviedo II or Marino de Luanco
72%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
51%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
23%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
74%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
39%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
16%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
57%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
21%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
68%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
49%
level
28%
Marino de Luanco scores more
23%

Real Oviedo II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 1–0 Marino de Luanco

Real Oviedo II beat Marino de Luanco 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.