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Real Oviedo II vs Luarca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luarca
Luarca
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Real Oviedo II69%
×Draw19%
Luarca12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
2.10
Luarca
0.73

Real Oviedo II creates 188% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
2.47
Luarca
0.75

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
0.72
Luarca
1.73

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Luarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
88%
Real Oviedo II or Luarca
81%
Draw or Luarca
31%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
44%
Luarca wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
88%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
62%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
35%
Luarca 1+ goals
52%
Luarca 2+ goals
17%
Luarca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
85%
Luarca (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.10

Luarca attack 0.75 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
69%
level
19%
Luarca scores more
12%

Real Oviedo II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Oviedo II 2–0 Luarca

Real Oviedo II beat Luarca 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.