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Luarca vs Real Oviedo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Luarca
Luarca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Luarca22%
×Draw25%
Real Oviedo II54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luarca
0.94
Real Oviedo II
1.64

Real Oviedo II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Luarca
1.12
Real Oviedo II
1.89

allows per match

Luarca
1.39
Real Oviedo II
0.75

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Luarca or draw
46%
Luarca or Real Oviedo II
75%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
78%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+
7%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals
61%
Luarca 2+ goals
24%
Luarca 3+ goals
7%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
81%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
49%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)
29%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Luarca scores more
22%
level
25%
Real Oviedo II scores more
54%

Real Oviedo II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luarca vs Real Oviedo II

Real Oviedo II beat Luarca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.