Real Oviedo II 4–2 Lenense: Result & Stats

Real Oviedo II

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Lenense

Javi Cueto 79' (pen)

Miguel Prendes 39'

Jesús Ruiz 31'

Lucas Laso 29'

Pablo Sánchez 45' (pen)

Alberto Arias 33'

11/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Real Oviedo II69%

×Draw19%

Lenense12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.74

Real Oviedo II

2.09

Lenense

0.74

Real Oviedo II creates 182% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 96 away

2.47

creates per match

0.76

0.72

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

2.47

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

0.72

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Lenense →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

88%

Real Oviedo II or Lenense

81%

Draw or Lenense

31%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

44%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

88%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

62%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

34%

Lenense 1+ goals

52%

Lenense 2+ goals

17%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

85%

Lenense (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Lenense attack 0.76 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

69%

level

19%

Lenense scores more

12%

Real Oviedo II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

31'

33'

39'

45'

Pablo SánchezPenalty

58'

Álex Suárez← Isaac Sánchez

62'

Merayo← Pelayo Rey

62'

Eloy← Marc Alegre

66'

Jairo Fernández← Alvaro Sánchez

66'

Abel Garcia← Cejudo

79'

Javi CuetoPenalty

82'

Javi Moreno← René Pérez

82'

Álvaro Fernández← Jesús Ruiz

82'

Guille Cortina← Julio Vázquez

82'

Carlos Blanco← Pablo Sánchez

82'

R. Alvarez← R. Palermo

Real

Lenense

▼

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▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Ruiz

▼

Sánchez

Iglesias

Manager: Jaime Álvarez

58'▲Álex Suárez←▼Isaac Sánchez

62'▲Merayo←▼Pelayo Rey

62'▲Eloy←▼Marc Alegre

82'▲Javi Moreno←▼René Pérez

82'▲Álvaro Fernández←▼Jesús Ruiz

Real Oviedo II substitutes

SuárezMerayoEloyMorenoFernández

Manager: Alfonso Arias

66'▲Jairo Fernández←▼Alvaro Sánchez

66'▲Abel Garcia←▼Cejudo

82'▲Guille Cortina←▼Julio Vázquez

82'▲Carlos Blanco←▼Pablo Sánchez

82'▲R. Alvarez←▼R. Palermo

Lenense substitutes

FernándezGarciaCortinaBlancoAlvarez