Lenense 0–1 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Lenense

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Oviedo II

Eloy 44'

4/3/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lenense24%

×Draw25%

Real Oviedo II51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.60

Lenense

1.01

Real Oviedo II

1.60

Real Oviedo II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 36 away

1.27

creates per match

1.89

1.32

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Real Oviedo II

1.89

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Real Oviedo II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

49%

Lenense or Real Oviedo II

75%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

76%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

64%

Lenense 2+ goals

27%

Lenense 3+ goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

80%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

47%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

32%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.01

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lenense scores more

24%

level

25%

Real Oviedo II scores more

51%

Real Oviedo II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Eloy

62'

Alberto Arias← Sergio Ismael

68'

Joselu Guerra← S. Nnoshiri

68'

René Pérez← Eloy

77'

Carlos Blanco← Pedro Clute

77'

Kodiou Sidibé← Julio Vázquez

85'

Jesús Ruiz← Álex Suárez

90'

Álvaro Fernández← Javi Cueto

90'

Víctor Matovu← Ósky Menéndez

Lenense

Real

Berto

Moreno

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfonso Arias

62'▲Alberto Arias←▼Sergio Ismael

77'▲Carlos Blanco←▼Pedro Clute

77'▲Kodiou Sidibé←▼Julio Vázquez

Lenense substitutes

AriasBlancoSidibé

Manager: Jaime Álvarez

68'▲Joselu Guerra←▼S. Nnoshiri

68'▲René Pérez←▼Eloy

85'▲Jesús Ruiz←▼Álex Suárez

90'▲Álvaro Fernández←▼Javi Cueto

90'▲Víctor Matovu←▼Ósky Menéndez

Real Oviedo II substitutes

GuerraPérezRuizFernándezMatovu

Match Recap: Lenense vs Real Oviedo II

Real Oviedo II beat Lenense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 3, 2022.

Goals: Eloy (44').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Real Oviedo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lenense vs Real Oviedo II