Real Oviedo II 0–0 Internacional de Madrid

Real Oviedo II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

11/10/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Oviedo II44%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Madrid26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.88

Real Oviedo II

1.23

Internacional de Madrid

0.88

Real Oviedo II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

1.04

creates per match

0.76

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.04

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.00

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

74%

Real Oviedo II or Internacional de Madrid

71%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

56%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

20%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

71%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

35%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

13%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

59%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

22%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

63%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

44%

level

29%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

26%

Real Oviedo II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

Vander← Tarsicio Aguado

72'

Viti Rozada← Víctor Villacañas

78'

N. Arkine← Junior

82'

Aitor Núñez← Alvar Herrero

84'

Rubén Ramos← Aythami Perera

Real

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Emilio Cañedo

64'▲Vander←▼Tarsicio Aguado

72'▲Viti Rozada←▼Víctor Villacañas

Real Oviedo II substitutes

VanderRozadaLoreaSánchezMierOlmoBuru

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

78'▲N. Arkine←▼Junior

82'▲Aitor Núñez←▼Alvar Herrero

84'▲Rubén Ramos←▼Aythami Perera

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArkineNúñezRamosMancePedroBoselliValero

Match Recap: Real Oviedo II vs Internacional de Madrid

Real Oviedo II and Internacional de Madrid drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.

Real Oviedo II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Oviedo II vs Internacional de Madrid