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Internacional de Madrid vs Real Oviedo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
CANC
00:00
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Internacional de Madrid55%
×Draw23%
Real Oviedo II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Madrid
1.85
Real Oviedo II
1.08

Internacional de Madrid creates 71% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.82
Real Oviedo II
0.92

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.24
Real Oviedo II
1.88

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw
78%
Internacional de Madrid or Real Oviedo II
77%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
45%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
32%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
84%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
55%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
28%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
66%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
29%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
72%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Real Oviedo II attack 0.92 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more
55%
level
23%
Real Oviedo II scores more
22%

Internacional de Madrid at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Internacional de Madrid vs Real Oviedo II — Match Preview

Internacional de Madrid face Real Oviedo II on March 29, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Internacional de Madrid host Real Oviedo II at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.