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Real Oviedo II vs Gijón Industrial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Real Oviedo II66%
×Draw20%
Gijón Industrial14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
2.08
Gijón Industrial
0.83

Real Oviedo II creates 151% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 80 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
2.47
Gijón Industrial
0.95

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
0.72
Gijón Industrial
1.69

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Gijón Industrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
86%
Real Oviedo II or Gijón Industrial
80%
Draw or Gijón Industrial
34%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
42%
Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
87%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
61%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
34%
Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
56%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
20%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
83%
Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
66%
level
20%
Gijón Industrial scores more
14%

Real Oviedo II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Oviedo II 1–0 Gijón Industrial

Real Oviedo II beat Gijón Industrial 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.