Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gijón Industrial vs Real Oviedo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
3/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gijón Industrial26%
×Draw24%
Real Oviedo II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijón Industrial
1.14
Real Oviedo II
1.67

Real Oviedo II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

creates per match

Gijón Industrial
1.52
Real Oviedo II
1.89

allows per match

Gijón Industrial
1.44
Real Oviedo II
0.75

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw
50%
Gijón Industrial or Real Oviedo II
76%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
74%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
10%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
68%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
32%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
11%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
81%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
50%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
34%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.14

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more
26%
level
24%
Real Oviedo II scores more
50%

Real Oviedo II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gijón Industrial 0 – 2 Real Oviedo II

Real Oviedo II beat Gijón Industrial 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.