Real Oviedo II 2–1 Covadonga: Result & Stats

Real Oviedo II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Covadonga

2/10/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Oviedo II54%

×Draw23%

Covadonga23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchCovadonga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.07

Real Oviedo II

1.79

Covadonga

1.07

Real Oviedo II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

1.04

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.04

Covadonga

1.15

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.00

Covadonga

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Covadonga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

77%

Real Oviedo II or Covadonga

77%

Draw or Covadonga

46%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

30%

Covadonga wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

83%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

53%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

26%

Covadonga 1+ goals

66%

Covadonga 2+ goals

29%

Covadonga 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

71%

Covadonga (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Covadonga defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

Covadonga attack 1.15 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

54%

level

23%

Covadonga scores more

23%

Real Oviedo II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff