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Covadonga vs Real Oviedo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Covadonga38%
×Draw26%
Real Oviedo II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
1.37
Real Oviedo II
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 36 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.99
Real Oviedo II
1.89

allows per match

Covadonga
0.78
Real Oviedo II
0.75

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
64%
Covadonga or Real Oviedo II
74%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
62%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
17%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
75%
Covadonga 2+ goals
40%
Covadonga 3+ goals
16%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
74%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
38%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
51%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.37

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Covadonga scores more
38%
level
26%
Real Oviedo II scores more
36%

Covadonga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Covadonga 2 – 0 Real Oviedo II

Covadonga beat Real Oviedo II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.