Real Oruro 3–1 Jorge Wilstermann: Result & Stats

Real Oruro

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jorge Wilstermann

Gustavo Oliveira 46'

L. Ali 36'

S. Zeballos 9'

L. Andersen 73'

6/30/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Real Oruro49%

×Draw21%

Jorge Wilstermann30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real OruroExpected goals in this matchJorge Wilstermann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.57

Real Oruro

2.04

Jorge Wilstermann

1.57

Real Oruro creates 30% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 121 away

2.57

creates per match

1.15

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Real Oruro

2.57

Jorge Wilstermann

1.15

allows per match

Real Oruro

2.00

Jorge Wilstermann

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oruro ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Real Oruro or draw

70%

Real Oruro or Jorge Wilstermann

79%

Draw or Jorge Wilstermann

51%

Winning margin

Real Oruro wins by 2+

28%

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Oruro 1+ goals

87%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

60%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

33%

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

79%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

46%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

62%

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oruro at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oruro attack 2.57 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.15 + Real Oruro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Oruro scores more

49%

level

21%

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

30%

Real Oruro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Oruro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Zeballos↳ R. Cuellar Orti

15'

35'

36'

45+1'

46'

L. Rodriguez← C. Ancieta

46'

M. Tellez← A. Guillermo

46'

Gustavo Oliveira↳ L. Ali

51'

56'

56'

57'

60'

J. D. Ali Gutierrez← R. Cuellar Orti

63'

J. Adrian

67'

W. Velasco← L. Ali

71'

L. Andersen← J. Montano

73'

L. Andersen↳ A. Chumacero

80'

A. Chumacero

80'

J. Thomas

83'

G. Calle← Y. Vallejos

83'

M. Ortiz← S. Zeballos

89'

H. Bobadilla

90'

G. Castillo

Real

Jorge

12

Salinas

14

Pardo

34

▼

Ancieta

8

▼

Mamani

6

Villarroe

5

Castillo

20

▼

Guillermo

24

▼

Montano

10

Bobadilla

3

A

7

25

30

20

6

5

2

10

⚽A

▼

Ali

27

⚽

▼

Zeballos

97

A

▼

Orti

19

A

▼

Vallejos

11

⚽

Oliveira

Manager: Juan Marcelo Robledo Pizarro

60'▲J. D. Ali Gutierrez←▼R. Cuellar Orti

67'▲W. Velasco←▼L. Ali

83'▲G. Calle←▼Y. Vallejos

83'▲M. Ortiz←▼S. Zeballos

Real Oruro substitutes

1Zamora26Calle23Villegas28Alvarez77Gutierrez17Ortiz15Salvatierra8Velasco

Manager: Humberto Viviani Ribera

46'▲L. Rodriguez←▼C. Ancieta

46'▲M. Tellez←▼A. Guillermo

57'▲J. Adrian←▼J. Mamani

71'▲L. Andersen←▼J. Montano

Jorge Wilstermann substitutes

33Zotes27Corrales17Rodriguez29Adrian30Andersen35Guillermo11Tellez18Barron28Soto