Jorge Wilstermann 3–1 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

Jorge Wilstermann

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Oruro

I. Rocabado 90'

C. Ancieta 78'

F. Rodriguez 17'

S. Zeballos 74'

12/4/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann56%

×Draw21%

Real Oruro23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jorge WilstermannExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.26

Jorge Wilstermann

2.09

Real Oruro

1.26

Jorge Wilstermann creates 66% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 21 away

1.75

creates per match

1.43

1.09

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.75

Real Oruro

1.43

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.09

Real Oruro

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw

77%

Jorge Wilstermann or Real Oruro

79%

Draw or Real Oruro

44%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

34%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

88%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

62%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

34%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

72%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

36%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

71%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.09 · 126 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.75 + Real Oruro defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Real Oruro attack 1.43 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

56%

level

21%

Real Oruro scores more

23%

Jorge Wilstermann at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

F. Rodriguez

Jorge Wilstermann · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

Rodrigo Soto

17'

F. Rodriguez↳ A. Chumacero

24'

32'

38'

46'

46'

D. Fernandez← Y. Vallejos

46'

R. Gomez Saca← Castedo

46'

L. Vaca← M. Ortiz

61'

Sebastián Zeballos

62'

W. Velasco← A. F. Bravo Adan

71'

C. Ancieta← L. Rodriguez

74'

S. Zeballos↳ L. Vaca

76'

J. Thomas← Gustavo Oliveira

78'

C. Ancieta↳ F. Rodriguez

87'

Raúl GómezRed card cancelled

88'

Alfredo Aliaga

90+5'

L. Andersen← A. Barron

90'

I. Rocabado↳ S. Zotes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JorgeReal

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots19

1.08Expected Goals (xG)1.91

2Corners6

23Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots19

6On Target7

9Off Target7

0Blocked5

6Inside Box12

9Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

270Total Passes310

203Accurate Passes256

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Jorge Wilstermann vs Real Oruro

Jorge Wilstermann beat Real Oruro 3-1 in Primera División on December 4, 2025.

Goals: F. Rodriguez (17'), S. Zeballos (74'), C. Ancieta (78'), I. Rocabado (90').

Real Oruro controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 15.

Jorge Wilstermann vs Real Oruro — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Jorge Wilstermann vs Real Oruro