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Real Oruro vs Bolívar — Primera División 2026

Real Oruro
Real Oruro
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
S. Zeballos 73'
L. Ali 63', 45'
Robson Matheus 83'
8/2/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Real Oruro39%
×Draw21%
Bolívar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oruro
1.96
Bolívar
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 135 away

creates per match

Real Oruro
2.57
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

Real Oruro
2.00
Bolívar
1.35

finishing

Real Oruro+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oruro ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Real Oruro or draw
60%
Real Oruro or Bolívar
79%
Draw or Bolívar
61%

Winning margin

Real Oruro wins by 2+
21%
Bolívar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Real Oruro 1+ goals
86%
Real Oruro 2+ goals
58%
Real Oruro 3+ goals
31%
Bolívar 1+ goals
86%
Bolívar 2+ goals
59%
Bolívar 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Real Oruro (draw refunded)
49%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oruro at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.35 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oruro attack 2.57 + Bolívar defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bolívar attack 2.01 + Real Oruro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Oruro scores more
39%
level
21%
Bolívar scores more
40%

Bolívar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. AliReal OruroReal Oruro · M
9.3

Match Events

6'
Albano Alessandrini
9'
Yomar Rocha
16'
Jairo Thomas
34'
Yerco VallejosCard upgrade
35'
Yerco Vallejos
45+1'
Luis Alí
45'
L. Ali↳ Gustavo Oliveira
55'
L. Sabja← E. Rivero
59'
Luis Sabja
63'
L. Ali↳ Gustavo Oliveira
65'
J. Virreira← J. Prieto
71'
Miguel Torren
73'
V. Melgar← Gustavo Oliveira
73'
S. Zeballos↳ J. D. Ali Gutierrez
75'
J. Velasquez← E. Saavedra
76'
L. Paz← E. Vaca Moreno
80'
Luis Paz
83'
Robson Matheus↳ M. Cauteruccio
85'
R. Gomez Saca← J. D. Ali Gutierrez
85'
A. F. Bravo Adan← S. Zeballos

Possession

33%Real

Shots

16Real

Pass accuracy

46%Real

Statistics

RealBolívar
Overview
33%Possession67%
16Total Shots14
1.63Expected Goals (xG)1.23
3Corners5
15Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots14
6On Target6
7Off Target8
3Blocked0
7Inside Box6
9Outside Box8
Passing
33%Possession67%
180Total Passes360
129Accurate Passes311
72%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls11
3Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Primera División: Real Oruro 3–1 Bolívar

Real Oruro beat Bolívar 3-1 in Primera División on August 2, 2025.

Goals: L. Ali (45', 63'), S. Zeballos (73'), Robson Matheus (83').

Bolívar controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.