Bolívar 3–1 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Oruro

J. Velasquez 57'

Fabio Gomes 50'

C. A. Melgar 12'

J. Monsalve Montoya 90'

3/29/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolívar70%

×Draw16%

Real Oruro14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.14

Bolívar

2.69

Real Oruro

1.14

Bolívar creates 136% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 21 away

2.95

creates per match

1.43

0.85

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Bolívar

2.95

Real Oruro

1.43

allows per match

Bolívar

0.85

Real Oruro

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

86%

Bolívar or Real Oruro

84%

Draw or Real Oruro

30%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

48%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

93%

Bolívar 2+ goals

74%

Bolívar 3+ goals

49%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

68%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

32%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

83%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.95 + Real Oruro defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.69

Real Oruro attack 1.43 + Bolívar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bolívar scores more

70%

level

16%

Real Oruro scores more

14%

Bolívar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

C. A. Melgar

Bolívar · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

C. A. Melgar↳ J. Sagredo

28'

Victor Melgar

38'

José Sagredo

40'

Miyhel OrtizPenalty cancelled

46'

R. Vaca← Y. Rocha

46'

Robson Matheus← E. Saavedra

46'

E. Rivero← B. Mendez

50'

Fabio Gomes↳ R. Vaca

52'

Jesús Sagredo

53'

R. Hunacota Terceros← J. Roca

54'

S. Zeballos← J. D. Ali Gutierrez

57'

J. Velasquez↳ R. Vaca

62'

D. Romero← Fabio Gomes

63'

R. Cuellar Orti← Y. Vallejos

63'

R. Orihuela← V. Melgar

68'

L. Ali← Gustavo Oliveira

72'

J. Quinteros← J. Sagredo

90'

José Sagredo

90'

José Sagredo

90'

J. Monsalve Montoya↳ L. Ali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolívarReal

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots11

8Corners3

13Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target5

10Off Target5

0Blocked1

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

436Total Passes235

394Accurate Passes186

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2