Real Oruro 10–1 Blooming: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real OruroExpected goals in this matchBlooming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.50

Real Oruro

2.44

Blooming

1.50

Real Oruro creates 63% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 131 away

2.57

creates per match

0.99

2.00

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Real Oruro

2.57

Blooming

0.99

allows per match

Real Oruro

2.00

Blooming

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oruro ↓

Blooming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Real Oruro or draw

77%

Real Oruro or Blooming

81%

Draw or Blooming

42%

Winning margin

Real Oruro wins by 2+

37%

Blooming wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Oruro 1+ goals

91%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

70%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

43%

Blooming 1+ goals

78%

Blooming 2+ goals

44%

Blooming 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

72%

Blooming (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oruro at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

Blooming away — creates 0.99, concedes 2.31 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oruro attack 2.57 + Blooming defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.44

Blooming attack 0.99 + Real Oruro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Oruro scores more

58%

level

19%

Blooming scores more

23%

Real Oruro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Oruro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

D. Fernandez

Real Oruro · F

10.0

Match Events

10'

S. Zeballos↳ Gustavo Oliveira

17'

Moisés Villarroel

27'

Y. Villegas↳ L. Vaca

29'

J. Valverde↳ G. Vadala

30'

D. Fernandez↳ L. Vaca

32'

Jhon Jairo Villegas

34'

Gustavo Oliveira↳ Y. Villegas

35'

Gustavo Ribeiro

40'

Gustavo RibeiroGoal cancelled

41'

Marc Enoumba

44'

Albano Alessandrini

45'

Richard Spenhay

45'

Castedo↳ L. Vaca

46'

M. A. Becerra← C. Menacho

46'

J. Prieto← A. Alessandrini

46'

C. Romero← R. Gomez Miranda

49'

J. Prieto↳ M. Ortiz

52'

G. Centella← L. Chavez

53'

Miyhel Ortiz

56'

Miguel Angel Becerra

57'

D. Fernandez↳ Y. Villegas

60'

A. F. Bravo Adan← Gustavo Oliveira

63'

A. F. Bravo Adan

68'

S. Zeballos↳ A. F. Bravo Adan

70'

J. Gonzales← M. Abisab

70'

S. Severiche← M. Villarroel

70'

D. Fernandez

71'

Denilso Fernandez

78'

Y. Calle← Castedo

85'

H. Salvatierra← R. Orihuela

85'

F. A. Gil← L. Vaca

87'

Alexis Bravo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealBlooming

Overview

48%Possession52%

34Total Shots5

4.98Expected Goals (xG)0.36

7Corners1

16Fouls7

Shots

34Total Shots5

20On Target2

9Off Target1

5Blocked2

22Inside Box3

12Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

281Total Passes320

243Accurate Passes266

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

16Fouls7

6Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0