Blooming 4–2 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

Blooming

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Oruro

M. Villarroel 89'

G. Vadala 80'

J. Valverde 76'

R. Gomez Miranda 17'

R. Cuellar Orti 83'

J. Vila 45'

7/6/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Blooming57%

×Draw21%

Real Oruro22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BloomingExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.27

Blooming

2.13

Real Oruro

1.27

Blooming creates 68% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 21 away

1.82

creates per match

1.43

1.12

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Blooming

1.82

Real Oruro

1.43

allows per match

Blooming

1.12

Real Oruro

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Blooming or draw

78%

Blooming or Real Oruro

79%

Draw or Real Oruro

43%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+

35%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals

88%

Blooming 2+ goals

63%

Blooming 3+ goals

35%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

72%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

36%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)

72%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.82 + Real Oruro defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.13

Real Oruro attack 1.43 + Blooming defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Blooming scores more

57%

level

21%

Real Oruro scores more

22%

Blooming at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

M. Alaniz

Blooming · M

9.0

Match Events

16'

Luis Alí

17'

R. Gomez Miranda↳ M. Alaniz

24'

R. Cuellar Orti← J. Prieto

30'

Yerco Vallejos

39'

Eduardo Álvarez

45'

J. Vila↳ A. Alessandrini

49'

Eduardo Álvarez

49'

Eduardo Álvarez

54'

M. Villarroel← C. Padilla

60'

R. Orihuela← W. Velasco

60'

A. F. Bravo Adan← L. Ali

65'

G. Centella← G. Cadore

66'

J. Valverde← S. Etchebarne

66'

M. Abisab← R. Spenhay

68'

Franco Posse

72'

Gustavo Oliveira← Y. Vallejos

76'

J. Valverde↳ M. Alaniz

80'

G. Vadala↳ M. Alaniz

81'

Matías Abisab

83'

R. Cuellar Orti↳ Gustavo Oliveira

89'

90+8'

90+7'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BloomingReal

Overview

64%Possession36%

22Total Shots11

9Corners0

21Fouls20

Shots

22Total Shots11

11On Target5

7Off Target5

4Blocked1

17Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

348Total Passes197

272Accurate Passes118

78%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

21Fouls20

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1