Real Oruro 5–3 Aurora: Result & Stats

Real Oruro

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Aurora

Y. Vallejos 90'

S. Zeballos 75', 20'

C. Ribera 58'

Gustavo Oliveira 37'

R. Ramallo 90', 23'

A. Terrazas 80'

9/17/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 20Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Real Oruro53%

×Draw21%

Aurora27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real OruroExpected goals in this matchAurora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.52

Real Oruro

2.19

Aurora

1.52

Real Oruro creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 131 away

2.57

creates per match

1.03

2.00

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Real Oruro

2.57

Aurora

1.03

allows per match

Real Oruro

2.00

Aurora

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oruro ↓

Aurora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Real Oruro or draw

73%

Real Oruro or Aurora

79%

Draw or Aurora

47%

Winning margin

Real Oruro wins by 2+

32%

Aurora wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Oruro 1+ goals

89%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

64%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

37%

Aurora 1+ goals

78%

Aurora 2+ goals

45%

Aurora 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

66%

Aurora (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oruro at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.82 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oruro attack 2.57 + Aurora defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.19

Aurora attack 1.03 + Real Oruro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Oruro scores more

53%

level

21%

Aurora scores more

27%

Real Oruro at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Oruro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

G. Justiniano

7'

Gustavo Oliveira

9'

H. Sanchez

20'

S. Zeballos↳ A. Alessandrini

23'

R. Ramallo

37'

Gustavo Oliveira↳ R. Orihuela

45+7'

H. Sanchez

45+7'

H. Sanchez

46'

I. Huayhuata← A. Fernandez

57'

L. Vaca← Gustavo Oliveira

57'

Y. Vallejos← L. Vila

58'

C. Ribera

69'

A. F. Bravo Adan← L. Ali

72'

O. Blanco← R. Ballivian

75'

D. Quiruchi

75'

S. Zeballos↳ A. F. Bravo Adan

80'

A. Terrazas↳ R. Ramallo

81'

Y. Vallejos

82'

R. Orihuela

86'

J. Prieto← S. Zeballos

89'

R. Gomez Saca

90'

Y. Vallejos↳ R. Orihuela

90'

R. Ramallo↳ A. Terrazas

Real

Aurora

99

Akologo

21

▼

12

6

52

35

23

▼

Fernandez

5

Amarilla

8

⚽2A

Ramallo

69

⚽A

15

1

23

20

22

⚽

Ribera

5

A

Alessandr

28

Alvarez

27

⚽2

▼

Zeballos

18

A

Orihuela

37

▼

Vila

10

▼

Ali

11

⚽

▼

Oliveira

Manager: Marcelo Robledo

57'▲L. Vaca←▼Gustavo Oliveira

57'▲Y. Vallejos←▼L. Vila

69'▲A. F. Bravo Adan←▼L. Ali

86'▲J. Prieto←▼S. Zeballos

Real Oruro substitutes

25Terceros30Prieto44Romero29Castedo17Ortiz8Velasco65Adan97Orti35Fernandez39Vaca19Vallejos77Gutierrez

Manager: David Quiruchi

46'▲I. Huayhuata←▼A. Fernandez

72'▲O. Blanco←▼R. Ballivian

Aurora substitutes

1Terrazas3Vaca7Huayhuata9Blanco10Verdun16Vidaurre20Sanchez26Torrico27Flores33Fabinho55Michel