Aurora 2–2 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

Aurora

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Oruro

R. Ramallo 90'

R. Escobar 65'

Gustavo Oliveira 33'

Y. Vallejos 27'

4/25/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Aurora54%

×Draw21%

Real Oruro24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuroraExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.30

Aurora

2.04

Real Oruro

1.30

Aurora creates 57% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 21 away

1.65

creates per match

1.43

1.18

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Aurora

1.65

Real Oruro

1.43

allows per match

Aurora

1.18

Real Oruro

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Aurora or draw

76%

Aurora or Real Oruro

79%

Draw or Real Oruro

46%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+

32%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals

87%

Aurora 2+ goals

60%

Aurora 3+ goals

33%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

73%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

37%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)

69%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 127 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.65 + Real Oruro defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

Real Oruro attack 1.43 + Aurora defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aurora scores more

54%

level

21%

Real Oruro scores more

24%

Aurora at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Ramallo

Aurora · M

8.2

Match Events

27'

Y. Vallejos↳ R. Orihuela

33'

Gustavo Oliveira↳ S. Zeballos

35'

Sebastián ZeballosGoal confirmed

60'

R. Escobar← D. Robles

65'

R. Escobar↳ C. Sejas

67'

Victor Melgar

73'

M. Ortiz← Gustavo Oliveira

81'

L. Viviani← M. Gonzales

81'

R. Ballivian← M. Mendoza

88'

Yerco Vallejos

88'

Luis Alí

88'

L. Ali← R. Llano

88'

Y. Villegas← S. Zeballos

89'

Ramiro Ballivián

89'

S. Rojas← C. Sejas

89'

A. Sanchez← A. Amarilla

90'

Raúl Gómez

90+6'

A. Nunez← R. Gomez Saca

90'

R. Ramallo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AuroraReal

Overview

66%Possession34%

21Total Shots12

3Corners3

6Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots12

3On Target4

13Off Target4

5Blocked4

14Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

441Total Passes226

363Accurate Passes148

82%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1