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Real Noroeste vs Vitória ES — Serie D 2026

Real Noroeste
Real Noroeste
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Vitória ES
Vitória ES
Joao Bravo 79'
Patrick 83'
Tony 67'
Araujo 36'
4/11/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Noroeste46%
×Draw26%
Vitória ES27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Noroeste
1.45
Vitória ES
1.04

Real Noroeste creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Real Noroeste
1.32
Vitória ES
1.08

allows per match

Real Noroeste
1.00
Vitória ES
1.58

finishing

Real Noroeste+0.00on par
Vitória ES+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Noroeste ↓

Vitória ES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Noroeste or draw
73%
Real Noroeste or Vitória ES
74%
Draw or Vitória ES
54%

Winning margin

Real Noroeste wins by 2+
23%
Vitória ES wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Noroeste 1+ goals
77%
Real Noroeste 2+ goals
42%
Real Noroeste 3+ goals
18%
Vitória ES 1+ goals
65%
Vitória ES 2+ goals
28%
Vitória ES 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Noroeste (draw refunded)
63%
Vitória ES (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Noroeste at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Vitória ES away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Noroeste attack 1.32 + Vitória ES defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vitória ES attack 1.08 + Real Noroeste defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Noroeste scores more
46%
level
26%
Vitória ES scores more
27%

Real Noroeste at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Noroeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Araujo
67'
Tony
79'
Joao Bravo
83'
Patrick
Real
Vitória
Vieira Fabio
Manager: Vieira Fabio
Soriano Rafael
Manager: Soriano Rafael

Serie D: Real Noroeste 1–3 Vitória ES

Vitória ES beat Real Noroeste 3-1 in Serie D on April 11, 2026.

Goals: Araujo (36'), Tony (67'), Joao Bravo (79'), Patrick (83').