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Real Noroeste vs Vitória ES — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Real Noroeste
Real Noroeste
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitória ES
Vitória ES
Unknown 43'
7/19/2025Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · Semi-finalsEstádio José Olímpio da Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Noroeste33%
×Draw23%
Vitória ES44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Noroeste
1.50
Vitória ES
1.76

Vitória ES creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

creates per match

Real Noroeste
1.80
Vitória ES
2.05

allows per match

Real Noroeste
1.47
Vitória ES
1.20

finishing

Real Noroeste+0.00on par
Vitória ES+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Noroeste ↓

Vitória ES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Real Noroeste or draw
56%
Real Noroeste or Vitória ES
77%
Draw or Vitória ES
67%

Winning margin

Real Noroeste wins by 2+
15%
Vitória ES wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Real Noroeste 1+ goals
78%
Real Noroeste 2+ goals
44%
Real Noroeste 3+ goals
19%
Vitória ES 1+ goals
83%
Vitória ES 2+ goals
52%
Vitória ES 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Real Noroeste (draw refunded)
43%
Vitória ES (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Noroeste at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Vitória ES away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Noroeste attack 1.80 + Vitória ES defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vitória ES attack 2.05 + Real Noroeste defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Noroeste scores more
33%
level
23%
Vitória ES scores more
44%

Vitória ES at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vitória ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Espírito Santo: Real Noroeste 0–0 Vitória ES

Real Noroeste and Vitória ES drew 0-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on July 19, 2025.

Goals: ? (43').

The match was played at Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha in Águia Branca, Espírito Santo.