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Real Murcia vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
12/6/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Murcia42%
×Draw29%
Real Madrid II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.21
Real Madrid II
0.94

Real Murcia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
71%
Real Murcia or Real Madrid II
71%
Draw or Real Madrid II
58%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
18%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
70%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
34%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
12%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
61%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
24%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
60%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Murcia scores more
42%
level
29%
Real Madrid II scores more
29%

Real Murcia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia vs Real Madrid II

Real Murcia beat Real Madrid II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.