Real Madrid II 0–0 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Murcia

3/21/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Madrid II47%

×Draw26%

Real Murcia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.05

Real Madrid II

1.46

Real Murcia

1.05

Real Madrid II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.96

creates per match

1.18

0.93

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.96

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.93

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

73%

Real Madrid II or Real Murcia

74%

Draw or Real Murcia

53%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

23%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

77%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

43%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

18%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

65%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

28%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

63%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

47%

level

26%

Real Murcia scores more

27%

Real Madrid II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff