Real Murcia vs La Nucía — League #879 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Real Murcia28%
La Nucía42%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
La Nucía creates 33% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Murcia ↓
Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Murcia at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
La Nucía away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Murcia attack 0.75 + La Nucía defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88
La Nucía attack 1.33 + Real Murcia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
La Nucía at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Navalcarnero
Orihuela
Socuéllamos
Rayo Majadahonda
CD Coria
Las Palmas II
Getafe II
Rayo Vallecano II
Fuenlabrada
SS Reyes
RSD Alcalá
Quintanar del Rey
Real Madrid III
Conquense
Tenerife II
Elche II
Colonia Moscardó
IntercityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real Murcia host La Nucía on Sunday, 27 March 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #879 2026/2027 season.
Real Murcia 1 – 2 La Nucía
La Nucía beat Real Murcia 2-1 in League #879 on March 27, 2022.
Goals: Pablo Ganet (2'), Javi Cabezas (16'), Fofo (62' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.