La Nucía vs Real Murcia — League #879 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
La Nucía25%
Real Murcia49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Murcia creates 52% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
La Nucía ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
La Nucía at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches
Real Murcia away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
La Nucía attack 0.67 + Real Murcia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96
Real Murcia attack 2.25 + La Nucía defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.46
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Real Murcia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Navalcarnero
Orihuela
Socuéllamos
Rayo Majadahonda
CD Coria
Las Palmas II
Getafe II
Rayo Vallecano II
Fuenlabrada
SS Reyes
RSD Alcalá
Quintanar del Rey
Real Madrid III
Conquense
Tenerife II
Elche II
Colonia Moscardó
IntercityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
La Nucía host Real Murcia on Sunday, 7 November 2021 at 16:00. The match is part of the League #879 2026/2027 season.
La Nucía 1 – 2 Real Murcia
Real Murcia beat La Nucía 2-1 in League #879 on November 7, 2021.
Goals: Fofo (39' pen), Andrés Carrasco (81' pen), Dani García (89').
The match was played at Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano in La Nucia.