Real Murcia 4–0 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Real Murcia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cornellà

Pablo Ganet 90+5'

Dani Vega 67', 36'

Sergio Aguza 42'

4/2/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Murcia50%

×Draw27%

Cornellà23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MurciaExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.86

Real Murcia

1.40

Cornellà

0.86

Real Murcia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

0.84

0.89

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Real Murcia

1.14

Cornellà

0.84

allows per match

Real Murcia

0.89

Cornellà

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw

77%

Real Murcia or Cornellà

73%

Draw or Cornellà

50%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+

24%

Cornellà wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals

75%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

41%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

17%

Cornellà 1+ goals

58%

Cornellà 2+ goals

21%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

68%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Murcia scores more

50%

level

27%

Cornellà scores more

23%

Real Murcia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

C. Blanco

36'

Dani Vega

42'

Sergio Aguza

46'

Eliseo Falcón← M. Traoré

46'

Nahuel Arroyo← Carlos Blanco

51'

Dani Vega

62'

G. Martin

64'

Mamor Niang← Álex López

67'

Dani Vega

71'

Kike López← Xesc Fullana

71'

Raúl Tavares← Gerard Martín

73'

A. Hernandez

73'

Alfon González← Dani Vega

74'

D. Romera

76'

I. S. Magana

80'

Alberto Toril← Sergio Aguza

80'

Andrés Carrasco← Dani Romera

80'

Pablo Ganet← Arnau Ortiz

85'

Loren Burón← Pedro León

89'

J. Gracia

90+5'

Pablo Ganet

Real

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Vega

Manager: Mario Simón

73'▲Alfon González←▼Dani Vega

80'▲Alberto Toril←▼Sergio Aguza

80'▲Andrés Carrasco←▼Dani Romera

80'▲Pablo Ganet←▼Arnau Ortiz

85'▲Loren Burón←▼Pedro León

Real Murcia substitutes

GonzálezTorilCarrascoGanetBurónGallegoOrtizEscobarSernaHernándezSánchez

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

46'▲Eliseo Falcón←▼M. Traoré

46'▲Nahuel Arroyo←▼Carlos Blanco

64'▲Mamor Niang←▼Álex López

71'▲Kike López←▼Xesc Fullana

71'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Gerard Martín

Cornellà substitutes

FalcónArroyoNiangLópezTavaresCanalesFolch

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 4–0 Cornellà

Real Murcia beat Cornellà 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 2, 2023.

Goals: Dani Vega (36', 67'), Sergio Aguza (42'), Pablo Ganet (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.

Real Murcia vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 4–0 Cornellà