Cornellà 0–0 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Murcia

12/8/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà37%

×Draw31%

Real Murcia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.94

Cornellà

1.02

Real Murcia

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

1.08

creates per match

1.18

0.71

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Cornellà

1.08

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Cornellà

0.71

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

68%

Cornellà or Real Murcia

69%

Draw or Real Murcia

63%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

14%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

64%

Cornellà 2+ goals

27%

Cornellà 3+ goals

8%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

61%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

24%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

53%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cornellà scores more

37%

level

31%

Real Murcia scores more

32%

Cornellà at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Gil Muntadas← Mamor Niang

52'

A. Planas

71'

R. Folch

73'

Arnau Ortiz← Dani Vega

76'

Kike López← Alfred Planas

76'

Raúl Tavares← Ramón Folch

80'

Armando Ortiz← Pablo Ganet

80'

Z. Inoussa← Ale Galindo

83'

Andrés Carrasco← Loren Burón

83'

Santi Jara← Pedro León

Cornellà

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

46'▲Gil Muntadas←▼Mamor Niang

76'▲Kike López←▼Alfred Planas

76'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Ramón Folch

Cornellà substitutes

MuntadasLópezTavaresGarridoBlancoDaneseCanalesGorritiVilaplanaArroyoMartínezValter

Manager: Mario Simón

73'▲Arnau Ortiz←▼Dani Vega

80'▲Armando Ortiz←▼Pablo Ganet

80'▲Z. Inoussa←▼Ale Galindo

83'▲Andrés Carrasco←▼Loren Burón

83'▲Santi Jara←▼Pedro León

Real Murcia substitutes

OrtizOrtizInoussaCarrascoJaraGonzálezRuedaFedorSerna

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Real Murcia

Cornellà and Real Murcia drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 8, 2022.

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.

Cornellà vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Real Murcia