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Real Murcia vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Murcia
Real Murcia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
10/6/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Murcia44%
×Draw29%
Alcorcon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia
1.23
Alcorcon
0.91

Real Murcia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Murcia
1.14
Alcorcon
0.92

allows per match

Real Murcia
0.89
Alcorcon
1.32

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw
73%
Real Murcia or Alcorcon
71%
Draw or Alcorcon
56%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+
19%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals
71%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
35%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
13%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
60%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
23%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)
61%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Alcorcon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alcorcon attack 0.92 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Murcia scores more
44%
level
29%
Alcorcon scores more
27%

Real Murcia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Murcia 3–1 Alcorcon

Real Murcia beat Alcorcon 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.